The Issue
Probably the most asked question is, is my Node still running?
People get nervous when no earnings show up on a daily or weekly basis.
Unfortunately, that is how it is. The more nodes come online, the more the competition to get selected increases.
My personal longest time of not earning, for one Node, is 23 days. My Node was perfectly fine though.
Estimate your Chances
The probability for a Node to be selected to earn in x days, can be calculated using the following formula:
k = number of validators to be rotated each epoch (4)
m = number of shards (8)
S = number of staked nodes (~1,300)
x = number of days
1 - (1 - km/S) ^ (6x)
Using the formula on the current situation generates the following results
| Number of Days | Probability of being selected in x days |
|---|---|
| 1 | 13,89% |
| 2 | 25,85% |
| 3 | 36,15% |
| 4 | 45,02% |
| 5 | 52,65% |
| 6 | 59,23% |
| 7 | 64,89% |
| 8 | 69,77% |
| 9 | 73,97% |
| 10 | 77,58% |
| 11 | 80,70% |
| 12 | 83,38% |
| 13 | 85,69% |
| 14 | 87,68% |
| 15 | 89,39% |
| 16 | 90,86% |
| 17 | 92,13% |
| 18 | 93,22% |
| 19 | 94,16% |
| 20 | 94,98% |
| 21 | 95,67% |
| 22 | 96,27% |
| 23 | 96,79% |
| 24 | 97,24% |
| 25 | 97,62% |
| 26 | 97,95% |
| 27 | 98,24% |
| 28 | 98,48% |
| 29 | 98,69% |
| 30 | 98,87% |
| 31 | 99,03% |
| 32 | 99,16% |
| 33 | 99,28% |
